Who are the clubs nicely positioned to progress as crunch time arrives within the Champions League last 16? And who has all of it to do?

Three of England’s 4 clubs head into the second leg with a deficit to show round – with solely Manchester City having fun with a lead.

To assess the share likelihood of each side reaching the quarter-finals, sports activities information analysts Gracenote have used their Euro Club Index – feeding the outcomes to us at BBC Sport.

And BBC Radio 5 Live’s European soccer specialists focus on how they see each Premier League crew’s prospects.

Who are favourites to win it?

Last 12 months’s Champions League winners Liverpool is likely to be operating away with the league, however their 1-Zero loss at Atletico Madrid three weeks in the past them leaves perilously near going out.

“As Liverpool have a tough task on their hands to reach this season’s Champions League quarter-finals, Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Barcelona are the three big favourites to reach the final,” says Simon Gleave, head of sports activities evaluation at Gracenote.

“Should Liverpool knock out Atletico, the Reds will again be one of the big favourites to reach the final and win the tournament as they are the Euro Club Index’s number one ranked team.”

But should you assume it appears powerful for Liverpool, then spare a thought for Chelsea, whose 3-Zero first-leg loss to Bayern Munich offers them a 0.3% likelihood of successful the competitors.

RB Leipzig v Tottenham (Tue, agg 1-0)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Totals of 0% have been rounded down so will be something as much as 0.49%. Source: Euro Club Index
RB Leipzig 81% 31% 10% 7% 3%
Tottenham 19% 6% 1% 1% 0%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 1-Zero away within the first leg have gone on to progress 18 occasions and been eradicated 3 times.

European soccer journalist Raphael Honigstein: “That [first] Spurs game was almost a watershed moment for Leipzig because people weren’t sure if they could deal with the occasion. They had never been in the Champions League knockout stages before – [manager] Julian Nagelsmann had never been there. But they were so sure, they were balanced. Everything points towards Leipzig.”

Former Tottenham and Sevilla striker Freddie Kanoute: “Jose Mourinho has been a top manager and his record speaks for itself but the past few games from Tottenham have lacked passion. You saw Tottenham lose to Norwich [in the FA Cup] and it was like they were waiting for something to happen. Most of the time it is too late. I am not a big fan of the way their game plan goes right now.”

Any hope for Spurs? Lightning could not strike twice, might it? Tottenham misplaced 1-Zero at house to Ajax within the first leg of last 12 months’s semi-final and conceded one other two objectives within the first half of the second leg earlier than launching one of many competitors’s nice comebacks – successful 3-2 on the evening and going via on the away objectives rule. But the truth that the feat has solely been managed two different occasions in 21 makes an attempt suggests historical past shouldn’t be on their side.

Valencia v Atalanta (Tue, agg 1-4)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Totals of 0% have been rounded down so will be something as much as 0.49%. Source: Euro Club Index
Valencia 17% 5% 1% 1% 0%
Atalanta 83% 20% 4% 3% 1%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 4-1 at house within the first leg have progressed 3 times and been eradicated twice.

Any hope for Valencia? Remember Kostas Manolas? Barcelona nonetheless have nightmares about him. The Greek centre-back, then with Roma, accomplished one of many exceptional Champions League comebacks with a decisive header because the Italians, 4-1 down from their quarter-final first leg, gained 3-Zero in Rome to undergo on the away objectives rule. That was the second time in Champions League historical past {that a} crew had gone via after shedding the primary leg 4-1 – Deportivo La Coruna did it in a 2003-04 quarter-final in opposition to AC Milan, successful the second leg 4-0.

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid (Wed, agg 0-1)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Source: Euro Club Index
Liverpool 51% 37% 24% 10% 15%
Atletico Madrid 49% 23% 10% 6% 4%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 1-Zero at house within the first leg have progressed 23 occasions and been eradicated 10 occasions.

European soccer journalist Kristof Terreur: “Atletico had a strong game plan when they beat Liverpool but they haven’t been that good. We saw the real Atletico against Liverpool – but don’t underestimate Liverpool at home. Usually they can go the extra mile.”

Spanish soccer journalist Guillem Balague: “Liverpool have struggled to break teams down. It needs to be a low-scoring game for Atletico to go through. Their hope again is to score early, but if it is about defending they are happy to do it, not scared at all.”

Any hope for Liverpool? Liverpool need not look too far again for inspiration. The feat of overturning a 3-Zero first-leg deficit in opposition to Barcelona in last season’s semi-final will probably be contemporary of their minds.

Paris St-Germain v Borussia Dortmund (Wed, 1-2)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Source: Euro Club Index
Paris St-Germain 48% 25% 11% 6% 5%
Borussia Dortmund 52% 22% 8% 5% 3%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 2-1 at house within the first leg have progressed 11 occasions and been eradicated 14 occasions.

Any hope for Paris St-Germain? PSG have suffered some notably merciless blows on the last-16 stage. In 2017, they blew a 4-Zero first-leg lead in opposition to Barcelona by shedding 6-1 on the Nou Camp. Last season, having gained 2-Zero at Old Trafford, they conceded a late penalty to lose 3-1 at house to Manchester United and exit on away objectives. Maybe having to return from behind, slightly than maintain on to a bonus, will go well with them higher? Porto had been the last crew to return again from a 2-1 away defeat within the first leg, successful 3-1 at house to Roma after additional time in last season’s last 16.

Juventus v Lyon (17 March, agg 0-1)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Totals of 0% have been rounded down so will be something as much as 0.49%. Source: Euro Club Index
Juventus 57% 29% 13% 7% 6%
Lyon 43% 9% 2% 1% 0%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 1-Zero at house within the first leg have progressed 23 occasions and been eradicated 10 occasions.

Any hope for Juventus? Lyon’s last foray into the last 16 didn’t go nicely a 12 months in the past. They held Barcelona 0-Zero at house within the first leg however then suffered a humbling 5-1 defeat on the Nou Camp.

Manchester City v Real Madrid (17 March, agg 2-1)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Source: Euro Club Index
Manchester City 88% 59% 38% 17% 21%
Real Madrid 12% 6% 3% 2% 1%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 2-1 away within the first leg have progressed eight occasions and been eradicated as soon as.

Any hope for Real Madrid? Zinedine Zidane’s side might want to draw on their shock last-16 exit at Ajax’s arms last season. Real gained 2-1 in Amsterdam – then acquired thumped 4-1 on the Bernabeu.

Barcelona v Napoli (18 March, agg 1-1)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Totals of 0% have been rounded down so will be something as much as 0.49%. Source: Euro Club Index
Barcelona 83% 56% 34% 16% 18%
Napoli 17% 6% 1% 1% 0%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams drawing 1-1 at house within the first leg – as Napoli did – have progressed 12 occasions and been eradicated 24 occasions.

Who has the benefit? The undeniable fact that Napoli have gone out in each of their earlier appearances at this stage doesn’t bode nicely. Barcelona additionally drew their last-16 first leg last season – 0-Zero with Lyon – earlier than successful the return 5-1.

Bayern Munich v Chelsea (18 March, agg 3-0)

Percentage chance of progression
Team Quarter-final Semi-final Finalists Runners-up Winners
Favourites to progress in daring. Totals of 0% have been rounded down so will be something as much as 0.49%. Source: Euro Club Index
Bayern Munich 99% 66% 39% 18% 21%
Chelsea 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

How has this rating performed out beforehand? Teams successful 3-Zero away within the first leg have progressed 5 occasions and have by no means been eradicated.

Any hope for Chelsea? If we go by historical past alone, no. No crew has overturned a 3-Zero deficit when travelling away for the second leg. Saying that, Tottenham had been 3-Zero down on combination with 35 minutes to play in Amsterdam last season, so miracles do occur.

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